<div class="WordSection1"> <p style="text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">1. </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Introduction</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Economic intelligence plays a capital role in building and retaining power as an instrument of domestic and foreign policies </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Brand, 1996)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. Much public debate and speculation in many countries today is about international trade. Researchers argue that political factors fundamentally influence commercial policy design and implementation, including the decisions to impose or remove barriers to trade such as tariffs, quotas, and non-tariff barriers </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Lukauskas, 2013; Strange, 1985)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">&ldquo;Economic intelligence concerns the set of concepts, methods and tools which unify all the coordinated actions of research, acquisition, treatment, storage and diffusion of information, relevant to individual or clustered enterprises and organizations in the framework of a strategy&rdquo; </span></span></span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Anis &amp; Susdarwono, 2020, p. 127)</span></span></span><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. </span></span></span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Protectionism can be defined as the restriction of foreign firms&rsquo; activities and the protection of domestic suppliers in a context of liberalization of markets and free movement of goods and services </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Geginat &amp; Ramalho, 2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.It is said that regional integration can positively influence economic development to member states. Protectionism can negatively moderate that realationship.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The African Union (AU) has recently taken bold steps to integrate the continent further. In 2015 it members agreed on a broad integration plan, the Agenda 2063. A first success has already been achieved:&nbsp; The Agenda 2063 foresees a comprehensive free trade agreement which was to be finalized in 2017, and was eventually agreed upon in March 2018. Other steps are to follow, implying deeper integration with respect to movement of people, education and financial deepening, among others. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Despite the trade cooperation between African countries through Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and other trade agreement and the negative effect recognized to protectionism </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Ostry, 2019; Patunru &amp; Rahardja, 2015)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">, some countries like Nigeria uses protectionist measures in order to boost their growth. Regional integration in the context of Africa can be seen as a process whereby each region model of market regulation and the forms of protectionism that some countries use to adopt affect the relations between firms, the states, and trade unions. Studies even show that too much self-sufficiency and protectionism deprive populations in Africa of the benefits of free trade </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(United Nations Economic Commission for Africa, 2010)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Economic nationalism is not a new phenomenon. However, protectionism in a context where citizens need imported products for their alimentation is the fact that must be addressed. Differences in monetary policies contribute to more protectionism among countries. For instance, the pegging of the Franc CFA to the euro gives advantages to West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and the <i>Communaut&eacute; &eacute;conomique et mon&eacute;taire de l&#39;Afrique centrale</i> (CEMAC) countries with respect to the convertibility of this currency. This fact is a source of comparative advantage between WAEMU and CEMAC countries and other countries and generates protectionist measures. While a monetary union will to some extent dilute the influence of individual governments, countries that exhibit fiscal discipline would not want to join a monetary union with others that do not </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Masson, 2006)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">For example, scholars demonstrated that exchange rate returns exhibited an asymmetric response to oil price shocks during depreciation and appreciation in Nigeria </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Alley, 2018; Ayodeji, 2017; Longe et al., 2019)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. Called giant of West Africa and lame giant for some authors, oil has taken the first place in Nigeria&#39;s GDP since the year 2000<a href="#_ftn1" name="_ftnref1" style="color:#0563c1; text-decoration:underline" title=""><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align:super"><span class="MsoFootnoteReference" style="vertical-align:super"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">[1]</span></span></span></span></span></a>, while researchers are demonstrating that the component with the highest effect on its economy is Agriculture, followed by crude oil and manufacturing/industrialization </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Adams et al., 2019)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Protectionism is not conducive to the sustainable development of developing countries because it lowers their environmental efficiency </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Wang et al., 2022)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. Protectionism acts as a supply shock, causing output to fall and inflation to rise in the short run. Moreover, protectionism has at best a small positive effect on the trade balance </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Barattieri et al., 2021)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">In 2016, Nigeria has made competitive devaluation in order to improve its export competitiveness and local consumption. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Bergin and Corsetti</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2019)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> demonstrated that, by stabilizing inflation and the output gap, monetary policy can foster the competitiveness of firms, encouraging investment and entry in the differentiated goods sector, and ultimately affecting the composition of domestic output and exports. I is said that devaluation has a positive effect on New Business Formation in the short term, which gets diluted in the long term </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Herrera-Echeverri et al., 2015)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. In addition, according to </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Caporale et al. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">, competitive devaluations can restore trade balance equilibrium and industrial restructuring would appear, at that moment, to be a more sensible strategy, but in long term.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">A country&#39;s level of economic growth is said to not be a crucial factor for engaging in trade protection. The magnitude of protection is determined by its level of institutional development </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Osabuohien et al., 2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. However, Trump&rsquo;s impetuous trade wars is happening in a context of high level of institutional development </span></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Amiti et al., 2019; Koh, 2019; Li et al., 2018; Silver, 2018; Sukar &amp; Ahmed, 2019; Yılmaz, 2020)</span></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.&nbsp; </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The issue of cost-effectiveness analysis of protectionist measures becomes a relevant issue for understanding policy choice. In addition, in a context where agriculture is downgraded to second place and production is less diversified, the relevance of the application of protectionist measures becomes a question of capital importance. The purpose of this paper is to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of the restrictive measures that Nigeria often uses based on its trade with Franc CFA using countries.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">2. </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Research Issue </span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Central question</span></span></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">: What are costs and benefits of the export potential to Nigeria restriction of the Franc CFA using Countries on both Nigeria&rsquo;s and those countries&rsquo; economies?</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Research questions</span></span></span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">:</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">What are the costs of the export potential to Nigeria restriction of Franc CFA using Countries on their economies?</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Does export potential to Nigeria of Franc CFA using Countries restriction benefits to Nigeria&rsquo;s economy?</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The sum of the beneficial and harmful effects of Nigeria&#39;s restrictive measures really benefits which party?</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Whereas the theoretical calculations of the effects and costs of trade protection are well-established, the empirical estimates of the costs have been surprisingly small, especially considering the effort that economists spend decrying trade protection </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Feenstra, 1992; Wall, 1999)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. Surprisingly, estimates based on variation in trade policy are rare, and the ones that exist point to substantial heterogeneity across sectors. Studies using the gravity model have not been done in a protectionist context based on closing borders and resorting to restrictive measures as is the case of Nigeria. &ldquo;<i>As trade agreements become less about tariffs and nontariff barriers at the border and more about domestic rules and regulations, economists might do well to worry more about the latter possibility. They may even adopt a stance of rebuttable prejudice against these new-type trade deals, a prejudice against these deals, which should be overturned only with demonstrable evidence of their benefits </i></span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Rodrik, 2018, p. 89)</span></span></span><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">&rdquo;</span></span></span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Protectionism is related to various forms of administered and negotiated non-tariff restrictions on imports, above all voluntary export restraint (VER) arrangements </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Ruggie, 1994)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. A trade policy is a function of political as well as economic considerations and the interests of groups within nations have contributed to a kind of economic nationalism oscillating between the extremes of no trade and free trade </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(McCalla, 1969)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. Organized industrial and labor groups are demanding protection from both fair and unfair international competition. Protectionism may lead to reciprocal closure, which would cause the country economy to suffer far more in the future than it has in the past at the hands of foreign competition </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Borrus &amp; Goldstein, 1987)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">According to </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Dormois and Lains</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2006)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">, after Adam Smith and David Ricardo had given prescription about the supposedly beneficial effects of free trade and trade policy orientation, the protectionism is a policy that boost the European industrialization (e.g.: the rest of Europe against&nbsp; British manufactured goods) in nineteenth-century protectionism. Among the early Economic Liberals there was a general belief that free trade was the best policy, but there was considerable disagreement between Smith and his successors on the issues of trade&rsquo;s effect on culture and war </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Harlen, 1999)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. <i>Protectionist policies helped precipitate the collapse of international trade in the 1930s, and this trade shrinkage was a plausible seed of the Second World War </i></span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Ostry, 2019, p. 1)</span></span></span><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.</span></span></span></i></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Schuknecht</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2017)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> argues that the decision-making process is biased towards national policy-makers, leading to the political determination of the protection, with the outcome being that protection is geared towards domestic producer interests seeking relief from import competition. Some authors </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Feenstra, 1992; Rijkers et al., 2019)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> demonstrated that the income gains typically more than offset the increase in inequality cost of protection. According to </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Rijkers et al.</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2019)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">, in the majority of developing countries, the prevailing tariff structure thus induces sizable welfare losses.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Abboushi</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2010)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> established the benefits of free trade, to examine the reasons and outcomes of protectionist policies, and to evaluate the rationale behind trade protectionism. As far as the protectionism is concerned, according to the author, the welfare of protected interest groups may be advanced, but always at the expense of the larger society. It is often argued that protectionism is good for the country, but those arguments are rhetorical appealing to and arousing public sentiment. Protectionism does not advance public welfare. A potential explanation for this phenomenon can be found in the short-run distributional effects of import tariffs: while protectionism hurts the economy from an aggregate perspective (i.e. GDP goes down), unskilled workers in import-competing sectors benefit in the short run and do not lose in the long run </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Lechthaler &amp; Mileva, 2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. In fact, public welfare stands to be hurt by trade protectionism. These results are confirmed by </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Kirpichev and Moral-Benito</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> who investigated the effect of non-tariff barriers on exports growth over the period 2009-2013 using administrative data at the firm-product-destination level in Spain. According to their findings, non-tariff protectionist measures significantly reduce exports growth at the product-destination level. But, the conventional &rsquo;symmetry&rsquo; assumption made when estimating the effects of protectionism measures using liberalization-based elasticities may be at odds with the data.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">3. </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Objective</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The purpose of this study is to investigate factors that are affected in other African countries and in Nigeria when export potential of those African countries is decreasing because of Nigerian&rsquo;s protectionism measures using a gravity model approach. Panel data econometric technique will be used to estimate the gravity model.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">4. </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Methodology</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The explanatory sequential mixed methods approach is used this paper. It is a design in mixed methods that appeals to individuals with a strong quantitative background or from fields relatively new to qualitative approaches. It involves a two-phase project in which the researcher collects quantitative data in the first phase, analyzes the results, and then uses the results to plan (or build onto) the second, qualitative phase. The overall intent of this design is to have the qualitative data help explain in more detail the initial quantitative results. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The method that is used for the quantitative phase, after descriptive analysis, is the Gravity Model to estimate the costs and the effectiveness of Protection. The gravity model is a very simple empirical model that explains the size of bilateral international trade between countries. The model has a lineage that stretches back to Jan Tinbergen, the co-winner of the first Nobel Prize in economics. It models the flow of international trade between a pair of countries as being proportional to their economic &ldquo;mass&rdquo; and inversely proportional to the distance between them. The gravity equation acquired its name since a similar function describes the force of gravity in Newtonian physics. The gravity model of international trade has a remarkably consistent history of success as an empirical tool. The elasticities of trade with respect to both income and distance are consistently signed correctly, economically large, and statistically significant in an equation that explains a reasonable proportion of the cross-country variation in trade </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Rose, 2002)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Deardorff </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(1998)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> has shown that the gravity equation is consistent with several variants of the Ricardian and Heckschser-Ohlin models. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Greenaway and Milner</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2002)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> argue that the gravity model has a distinctive role to play in evaluating trade effects and its application has been enhanced by both the refinement of theoretical underpinnings and development of econometric technique. Although theoretical foundations have been established, the empirical application of the gravity model is still rather basic. As demonstrated by Cheng and Wall </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2005)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">, despite providing a high, the standard estimation method tends to underestimate trade between high-volume traders, and overestimate it between low-volume traders. They attribute this to heterogeneity bias, which they address by relaxing the restriction that the intercept of the gravity equation must be the same for all trading partners. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Drawing on the procedures developed for estimating stochastic frontier production functions, the methodology suggested by </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Kalirajan</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2008)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> to estimate specification bias-free gravity models is the specification and estimation of a stochastic frontier gravity model. The advantages of the suggested method of estimation are as follows: </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-36pt; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">i. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Firstly, it does not suffer from a loss of estimation efficiency. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-36pt; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">ii. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Second, it estimates the combined effects of the &lsquo;economic distance&rsquo; bias term, which is creating heteroscedasticity and nonnormality, isolating it from the statistical error term. This isolating property will enable users for analyzing the determinants of this bias term.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-36pt; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">iii. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Third, the suggested approach provides potential trade estimates that are closer to free trade estimates. Since, this approach represents the upper limits of data, which come from, those economies that have liberalized trade restriction the most. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-36pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">iv. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Finally, the suggested method bears strong theoretical and trade policy implications.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The gravity model was first applied to international trade by Tinbergen </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(1962)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> and P&ouml;yn&ouml;hen </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(1963)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. It is used by&nbsp; </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Wall</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(1999)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> to estimate the costs of protection.&nbsp; The objective was to provide new estimates of the effects of protectionism on the volume of U.S. trade, and to obtain rough estimates of the resulting welfare effects. In doing so, I outlined a new approach that uses a gravity model, which is capable of accounting for the general equilibrium effects while having a relatively low informational requirement. I also used a specific form of the gravity model, which allowed for trading-pair heterogeneity and which was statistically superior to the standard model. The method also included the use of a partly subjective trade policy index that accounts for forms of protection that are difficult to quantify, such as administrative barriers, unilateralism, procurement restrictions, corruption, etc.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Gupta et al. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2019)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> used a classical gravity model to examine the effects of geopolitical risks on the trade flows, among 164 developing and developed countries, for the period of 1985&ndash;2013. The simplest form of the gravity model for international trade posits that the volume of exports between any two trading partners is an increasing function of their national incomes, and a decreasing function of the distance between them. Although widely used because of its perceived empirical success (usually taken to mean a high), the gravity model had lacked rigorous theoretical underpinnings, and was long criticized for being <i>ad hoc</i>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The review of important literature made by </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Kabir et al. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2017)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> reveals that the gravity models have extensively covered various aspects of trade flows and ex post effects of their determinants. However, the model has undergone considerable theoretical testimonies, while it adopted a large number of econometric methods to correctly estimate the empirical equation to understand the bilateral trade flow and trade effects by addressing the statistical problems. Beginning with cross-sectional data, empirical gravity models have embraced both balanced and unbalanced panels with zero trade, firm heterogeneity and product specificity since the late 1990s. According to </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Kabir et al. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2017)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">, the latest econometric methods address various trader effects and time effects, economic spaces, differences in factor endowment and similarity, panel heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, and cross-sectional dependence. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">- </span></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Estimation </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">strategy</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">In this study, it will be used the best linear unbiased (BLU) estimator for gravity models.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">While it is said that the fixed-effect method which assumes instead that there are fixed factors that can make the intercept of the gravity equation different for each trading pair, it is demonstrated that the conventional ordinary least squares and fixed effects estimators of classical gravity models of migration are biased, and that the interpretation of coefficients in the fixed effects gravity model is typically incorrect </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Cameron &amp; Poot, 2019; Cipollina et al., 2016)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">It is known that for a wide class of discrete-time stationary processes possessing spectral densities&nbsp;<i>f</i>, the variance </span></span></span><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">&sigma;</span></span></span><i><sub><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">n</span></span></span></sub></i><sup><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">2</span></span></span></sup><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(<i>f</i>) of the best linear unbiased estimator for the mean depends asymptotically only on the behavior of the spectral density&nbsp;<i>f</i>&nbsp;near the origin, and behaves hyperbolically as&nbsp;<i>n</i>&nbsp;&rarr; &infin; </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Babayan &amp; Ginovyan, 2019)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">- </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Model and discussion of variables</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">In this paper, the model that will be used is as following:</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><m:omathpara><m:omath><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>PE</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>ij</m:r><m:r> </m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>= </m:r></span></i><m:ssubsup><m:ssubsuppr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubsuppr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&prop;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>0</m:r></span></i></m:sub><m:sup><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&#39;</m:r></span></i></m:sup></m:ssubsup><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+ </m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>1</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>logRH</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>i</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+</m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>2</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>log</m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>RHI</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>j</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+ </m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>3</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>logGNP</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>i</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+ </m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>4</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>logGNP</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>j</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+ </m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>5</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>logD</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>ij</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+</m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>6</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>H</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>ij</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+</m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>7</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>TCN</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>ij</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+ </m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>8</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>Pindex</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>i</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+ </m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>9</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>Pindex</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>j</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+</m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>10</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>Border</m:r><m:r> +</m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>11</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>logImport</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>i</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+</m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>312</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>logImport</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>j</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>+ </m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>u</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>ij</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub></m:omath></m:omathpara><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;"><img src="file:///C:UsersDeLLAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image002.png" style="width:605px; height:61px" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><m:omathpara><m:omath><m:ssubsup><m:ssubsuppr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubsuppr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>0</m:r></span></i></m:sub><m:sup><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>&#39;</m:r></span></i></m:sup></m:ssubsup><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r> = </m:r></span></i><m:ssub><m:ssubpr><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><span style="font-style:italic"><m:ctrlpr></m:ctrlpr></span></span></m:ssubpr><m:e><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>log&alpha;</m:r></span></i></m:e><m:sub><i><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><m:r>0</m:r></span></i></m:sub></m:ssub></m:omath></m:omathpara><span style="font-size:11.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Calibri&quot;,&quot;sans-serif&quot;"><img src="file:///C:UsersDeLLAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image004.png" style="width:78px; height:19px" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">EP = export potential of country i to country j</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Importi = Import of country I from Nigeria</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Import j = Import of Nigeria from Country i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">RHi = Income per capita in country i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">RHj = Income per capita in country j</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">GNPi = GNP of exporting country (current price)</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">GNPj = GNP of the importing country (current price)</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Dij = Geographical distance between country i and country j</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Hij = a binary variable that captures the sharing of a common language or historical links (colonial past)</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">TCNij = Nominal exchange rate Other African countries money-Naira</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Pindex i = Price index in country i</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Pindex j = Price index in the country j</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Border = a binary variable that captures the sharing of a common border: between country i and Nigeria</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Export potential</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The Gravity Model estimation uses export potentials with the global and bilateral trading partners. According to definitions in the economic literature, export potential, on the one hand, should be considered as an aggregate of strength and opportunity and on the other, as export </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Amirbekova, 2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. It is said that developing countries would experience significantly higher export growth if they were able to improve their performance with respect to the two key components of the intensive margin: survival and deepening </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Besede&scaron; &amp; Prusa, 2011)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. The dependent variable, the export potential, corresponds to the exports from other African countries<i> </i>to Nigeria. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">- </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Income per capita</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">In studies of income distribution household income is the common measure of household welfare, although household&nbsp;<i>per capita</i>&nbsp;income is better since it automatically &ldquo;corrects&rdquo; for household size </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Datta &amp; Meerman, 1980)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. In many cases those results differ substantially. Policy prescription based on household income rather than household per capita income can be very defective. It uses to take in account the population of each country in the sample.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">- </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">GNP of the countries</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">GNP measures the levels of production of all&nbsp;the citizens&nbsp;or corporations from a particular country working or producing in&nbsp;any country. Therefore, it&nbsp;includes&nbsp;the compensation and investment income received by nationals working or investing abroad </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Kim, 2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">- </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Geographical distance between countries</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The volume of trade between two countries depends on their relative size and the distance between them </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Cuccia et al., 2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. Since the gravity model is one of the most robust economic theories, several articles offered potentially interesting analysis, but </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Chaney</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2013)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> specifically discusses the implications of distance not as a physical barrier, but as a networking barrier to trade. He begins the analysis by asking how, over the last fifty years, distance has held as inversely proportional to trade flow despite increasing technology in transportation. Cheney&#39;s model develops the idea that as a firm grows, it develops a network full of contacts that it cannot only export its products to, but also import its supplies from.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">- </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">language or historical links (colonial past)</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Melitz and Toubal </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2014)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> construct new series for common native language and common spoken language for 195 countries, which they use together with series for common official language and linguistic proximity in order to draw inferences about the aggregate impact of all linguistic factors on bilateral trade, the separate role of ease of communication as distinct from ethnicity and trust, and the contribution of translation and interpreters to ease of communication. They result show that the impact of linguistic factors, all together, is at least twice as great as the usual dummy variable for common language, resting on official language, would say. In addition, ease of communication plays a distinct.&nbsp; Egger and Toubal</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> estimated response parameters of bilateral export flows at the disaggregated Harmonised System 6</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">‐</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">digit level to two fractional variables reflecting the language commonality between exporting and importing countries common native language versus common acquired language. In particular, they found that the response to common acquired language is shown to vary systematically with the price (and trade) elasticity of demand across products and with the degree of product differentiation and competition across products. These findings support the notion that there is a relatively important role to play for foreign</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">‐</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">language acquisition in stimulating cross</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Cambria Math&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">‐</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">border trade and international integration, which are known to induce (average) consumer gains. In this study, native and foreign languages shared individually by each country with Nigeria will be considered.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">- </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Nominal exchange rate and price index</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Exchange rate uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant affect trade flows </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(T. Caporale &amp; Doroodian, 1994; Chowdhury, 1993)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Thursby and Thursby</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(1987)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> found that increased exchange-rate variability affects bilateral trade flows. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Asteriou et al. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2016)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> show that, in the long term, there is no linkage between exchange rate volatility and international trade activities except for Turkey, and even in this case, the magnitude of the effect of volatility is quite small. In the short term, however, a significant causal relationship from volatility to import/export demand is detected for Indonesia and Mexico. In the case of Nigeria, unidirectional causality from export demand to volatility is found, while for Turkey, no causality between volatility and import/export demand is detected. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Bahmani-Oskooee and Gelan</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> studied a sample of twelve African countries to examine the impact of the real exchange-rate volatility on their trade flows. In order to distinguish the distinct impact of the real exchange-rate volatility on their exports and imports, both in the short-run and long-run, they used the bounds-testing approach and find that while exchange rate volatility affects trade flows of many of the countries in their sample in the short run, the long-run effects were restricted only on the exports of five countries and on the imports of only one country.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The price variables generally are also found to be statistically significant, which casts doubt on the homogeneous-goods assumption underlying the purchasing power parity hypothesis </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(Oguledo &amp; Macphee, 1994)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">.&nbsp;Most people have an idea of what a nominal exchange rate represents, namely the value of one currency expressed in another. It is commonly defined as the price of a foreign currency in a given country. However, the nominal exchange rate does not explain everything. The individual, or business, who buys a foreign currency is interested in what they can buy with it. The Real Exchange Rate between two currencies is calculated by multiplying the nominal exchange rate by the price ratio between the two countries. The nominal exchange rate and price index will be considered in this study. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">- </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Border effects</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">This puzzle was first presented by McCallum </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(1995)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> and has gone on to spawn a large and growing literature on so-called border effects. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Head and Mayer</span></span></span> <span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2009)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> argue that, because distances are always mismeasured in the existing literature, the border effects may have been mismeasured in a way that leads to a systematic overstatement. They show how use of the existing methods for calculating distance leads to &ldquo;illusory&rdquo; border and adjacency effects. Both border effects and distance are considered in this study because of the existing of land-border and sea-border between countries.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The qualitative study involved 38 interviews. It focused on local actors in the Illara, Allagb&eacute;-Illikimoun and Illikimoun-kolly border areas in the commune of K&eacute;tou. The characteristics of the interviewees are as follows:</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Table 1: Characteristics of interviewees </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <table class="MsoTableGrid" style="border-collapse:collapse; border:none"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:104px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:1px solid black; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:1px solid black" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Order Numb.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:236px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:1px solid black; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Category</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:151px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:1px solid black; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Number</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:104px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:1px solid black" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">1</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:236px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Farmers</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:151px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">10</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:104px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:1px solid black" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">2</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:236px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Traders</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:151px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">14</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:104px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:1px solid black" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">3</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:236px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Transporters</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:151px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">08</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:104px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:1px solid black" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">4</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:236px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Currency traders</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:151px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">04</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:104px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:1px solid black" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">5</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:236px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Ferrymen/guides, interpreter</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:151px; padding:0cm 7px 0cm 7px; border-top:none; border-right:1px solid black; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">02</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Source: Author</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">5. </span></span></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Data Sources</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The data set covers bilateral trade between Franc CFA using countries and Nigeria and from 2000 and 2020. The data comes from statistics from the Central Bank of the countries under study and UNCTAD. In order to have the same price base, price index are be collected from UNCTAD data base.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">6. </span></span></span><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Results and discussion</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection1"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">To investigate factors that are affected in CFA franc using countries and in Nigeria when export potential of those CFA franc using countries is decreasing because of Nigerian&rsquo;s protectionism measures, we estimate the baseline regression model using&nbsp; panel random effect model (see Table 3 ). The variables included, like it is stated in methodology in the estimations are those that appear in the traditional gravity model estimations, such as the income of both the exporter and importer, the sharing of a common language or historical links (colonial past), the nominal exchange rate of CFA francs to Naira, the prices index in CFA francs using countries, the price index in Nigeria, a binary variable that captures the sharing of a common border with Nigeria and distance.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </div> <div style="page-break-after: always"><span style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span></div> <div class="WordSection2"> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection2"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Table 2: Correlation of the study variables</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection2"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><img src="file:///C:UsersDeLLAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image006.png" style="width:937px; height:325px" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="page:WordSection2"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Source: Authors</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </div> <div style="page-break-after: always"><span style="display: none;">&nbsp;</span></div> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Table 3: Estimation of the Export Potential</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <table align="center" class="Table" style="border-collapse:collapse"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="border-bottom:none; width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px; background-color:#bfbfbf; border-top:1px solid black; border-right:none; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:none; width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px; background-color:#bfbfbf; border-top:1px solid black; border-right:none; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Export Potential</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:6px; background-color:#bfbfbf; border-top:none; border-right:none; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">VARIABLES</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:6px; background-color:#bfbfbf; border-top:none; border-right:none; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">lnimporti</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">0.268***</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(0.0660)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">lnepj</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">0.118*</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(0.0643)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">lnimportj</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">0.303***</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(0.0505)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">lnrhi</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">-0.169</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(0.108)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">lnrhj</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">-3.852</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(6.766)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">lnpnbi</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">0.303***</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(0.0945)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">lnpnbj</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">1.311</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(2.396)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">lndij</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">-1.606***</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(0.392)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">hij</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">-0.184</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(0.346)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">tcnij</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">-0.121</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(0.264)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">pindexj</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">0.00133</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(0.00177)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">bclose</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">-0.718</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(1.034)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Constant</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">44.35</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(54.76)</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Observations</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:20px" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">234</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:113px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px; border-top:none; border-right:none; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p style="margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Number of t</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="border-bottom:1px solid black; width:394px; padding:0cm 5px 0cm 5px; height:19px; border-top:none; border-right:none; border-left:none" valign="top"> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">20</span></span></span></span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Standard errors in parentheses</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p align="center" style="text-align:center; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">*** p&lt;0.01, ** p&lt;0.05, * p&lt;0.1</span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"><img src="file:///C:UsersDeLLAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image008.png" style="width:672px; height:150px" /></span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">To investigate factors that are affected in CFA franc using countries and in Nigeria when export potential of those CFA franc using countries is decreasing because of Nigerian&rsquo;s protectionism measures, we estimate the baseline regression model using &hellip;(see Table: ). The results are presented model by model. The variables included, like it is stated in methodology in the estimations are those that appear in the traditional gravity model estimations, such as the income of both the exporter and importer, the sharing of a common language or historical links (colonial past), the nominal exchange rate of CFA francs to Naira, the prices index in CFA francs using countries, the price index in Nigeria, a binary variable that captures the sharing of a common border with Nigeria and distance.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The results show that an increase/decrease in the export potential of CFA franc countries leads to an increase/decrease in the imports of these countries from Nigeria. This result means that any form of restriction in the export potential of CFA franc countries would result in a decrease in imports from Nigeria to these countries.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">A lifting of barriers or an increase in the export potential of countries using the CFA franc increases the Gross National Product of these countries. However, the restriction of exports from these CFA franc using countries to Nigeria is not synonymous with an increase in Nigeria&#39;s gross domestic product. Indeed, the effect, the change in Nigeria&#39;s Gross National Product has no impact on the export potential of these countries with the CFA franc in use. This means that the restriction of the export potential of CFA franc countries to Nigeria reduces the supply of goods and, all else being equal, would increase the price level. </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Lechthaler and Mileva (2018)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> have demonstrated that protectionism does not advance public welfare. A potential explanation for this phenomenon, according to the author, can be found in the short-run distributional effects of import tariffs: while protectionism hurts the economy from an aggregate perspective (i.e. GDP goes down), unskilled workers in import-competing sectors benefit in the short run and do not lose in the long run. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">When the export potential of CFA franc using countries is restricted, especially through border closures, Nigeria&#39;s exports to these countries are also reduced. The price of oil would become lower and local consumption will be increased. The oil price index veils the increase in the price index of other goods. That fact can justify the reason why the decrease of the potential export is not causing the rising of price index in general.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The research results also show a significant and negative effect of the distance between the CFA franc countries and Nigeria and the export potential of these countries. The export potential is therefore higher when the distance between these countries and Nigeria is smaller. Distance is an important variable in increasing export potential.&nbsp; The sharing of a common language or historical links (colonial past) is not necessarily important.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">As announced in the methodology, the qualitative approach was used to further explain the quantitative results. For farmers in Benin&#39;s border areas, the restriction of exports to Nigeria is causing poor sales. Despite the porous borders, it is difficult to sell agricultural products when the borders are closed. &ldquo; <i>The &quot;Lafou&quot; made from cassava by women, coloquint, tomatoes, etc. are bought by Nigerians who no longer come to buy. This situation is in addition to the problem of purchasing power of the naira. For example, 5000 Naira is worth about 5000 F CFA. What 5000 Naira can buy in Nigeria, 5000 F CFA cannot buy.</i>&rdquo; It means that the quantity of goods and services that can be bought with a naira unit cannot in Nigeria for some products cannot be bought.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The restriction of the export potential of countries using the CFA creates enormous difficulties, such as the high cost of food products in Nigerian cities. In trade between Benin and Nigeria, for example, for some products being re-exported to Nigeria (usually food products), transporters go through the bush. This makes the cost of transport expensive, which affects the selling price of our products in Nigeria. &quot;<i>When we transport our goods to Abeokuta, Lagos or Ibadan, we notice that food products become more expensive and everyone cries</i>&quot;. The availability of gasoline in Nigerian stations and their lower prices in the cities do not affect the towns. Nigerian stations near the borders were banned from refueling. That fact affects the right to food in Nigeria. <i>The right to food is a universal human right inherent to every person, regardless of where they live on the planet. The right to food is to ensure access to adequate diet, which means that every human being should have access to food or means for its procurement to meet his needs </i></span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">(S&aacute;nchez &amp; Rodr&iacute;guez, 2013, p. 910)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. The export potential restriction cause the increase in inequality. In Nigerian cities near the borders, food and petroleum products have become more expensive, while in other cities it is only food products that are expensive. It confirms </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Feenstra (1992) and Rijkers et al. (2019)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;"> studies who demonstrated that income gains from protection offset the increased inequality cost. Equilibrium was found between the consumer price index and petroleum pump price measures in Nigeria by </span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Sakanko et al. (2021)</span></span></span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">. If there is compensation between benefits and cost of protectionism, the global lose is the inequality created by restriction mesures.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Before the borders were closed, transportation was provided by several means. When the border was closed, the means of transport that could not pass through the bush had to stop operations. &quot;<i>We go through the bush. We are hunted like game by the customs officers and the military with our luggage in the bush. They sometimes shoot at the transporters</i>.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Conclusion</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">This study set out to to investigate factors that are affected in CFA franc using countries and in Nigeria when export potential of those CFA franc using countries is decreasing because of Nigerian&rsquo;s protectionism measures. The study has found generally that an increase/decrease in the export potential of CFA franc countries leads to an increase/decrease in the imports of these countries from Nigeria. An increase in the export potential of countries using the CFA franc increases the Gross National Product of these countries. However, the restriction of exports from these CFA franc countries to Nigeria is not synonymous with an increase in Nigeria&#39;s gross domestic product. Indeed, the effect, the change in Nigeria&#39;s Gross National Product has no impact on the export potential of these countries with the CFA franc in use. The decrease of the potential export of CFA franc using countries is not causing the rising of price index in general, but it affects food products&rsquo; price level and the right to food. The export potential is therefore higher when the distance between these countries and Nigeria is smaller.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">Nigeria&#39;s protectionist measures reduce exports through formal procedures, but products continue to enter Nigeria through the bush. These measures are affecting the general price level of food products. This rise in the price level of food products is cushioned by the drop in the price of petroleum products in the major cities of Nigeria to establish the price index at a normal level. This is just the tip of the iceberg as this situation affects the right to food in Nigeria. An implication of this is that protectionism measures affect more Nigeria than franc CFA using countries. Nigeria benefits from availability of fuel pump, but food products prices rises.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">ECOWAS countries must find a structural solution to the problems that give rise to restrictive measures. The issue of the single ECOWAS currency is a means of addressing the imbalance in terms of comparative advantages that countries using the CFA franc have at the expense of Nigeria. These countries have the advantage of having their currencies pegged to the Euro and benefit from a fixed exchange rate. Although this reality has other economic consequences, it offers the possibility for countries using the CFA franc to import at a lower cost and re-export these products to Nigeria, when the distance to Nigeria allows it.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:150%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">The scope of this study was limited in terms of integrating consumer price index by commodity in the quantitative approach. It was not possible to assess tax issues in considered countries; therefore, it is unknown if the restriction of the export potential was beneficial for Nigeria or not. These aspects are the insights for future research. </span></span></span></span></span></span></p> <p style="text-align:justify; margin-bottom:11px">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-indent:-18pt; margin-bottom:11px; margin-left:48px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">7. </span></span></span></b><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><span style="line-height:107%"><span style="font-family:&quot;Times New Roman&quot;,&quot;serif&quot;">References</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></p> <p class="MsoBibliography" style="text-indent:-36pt; margin-left:48px"><span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:200%"><span style="font-family:Calibri, &quot;sans-serif&quot;">Abboushi, S. (2010). 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